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Perak vs Sabah FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Perak
Perakadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
9/25/2023Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsStadium Perak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Perak45%
×Draw25%
Sabah FA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Perak
1.55
Sabah FA
1.21

Perak creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Perak
1.71
Sabah FA
1.27

allows per match

Perak
1.14
Sabah FA
1.40

finishing

Perak+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perak ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Perak or draw
70%
Perak or Sabah FA
75%
Draw or Sabah FA
55%

Winning margin

Perak wins by 2+
23%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Perak 1+ goals
79%
Perak 2+ goals
46%
Perak 3+ goals
20%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
70%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
34%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Perak (draw refunded)
60%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perak at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perak attack 1.71 + Sabah FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sabah FA attack 1.27 + Perak defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Perak scores more
45%
level
25%
Sabah FA scores more
30%

Perak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Perak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Perak 1 – 0 Sabah FA

Perak beat Sabah FA 1-0 in Malaysia Cup on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium Perak in Ipoh.