Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sabah FA vs Kelantan FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
2 – 1
Kelantan FA
Kelantan FA
11/6/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 5Stadium Likas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sabah FA69%
×Draw18%
Kelantan FA13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
2.29
Kelantan FA
0.89

Sabah FA creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.00
Kelantan FA
0.71

allows per match

Sabah FA
1.07
Kelantan FA
3.57

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Kelantan FA+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Kelantan FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
87%
Sabah FA or Kelantan FA
82%
Draw or Kelantan FA
31%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
45%
Kelantan FA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
90%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
66%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
40%
Kelantan FA 1+ goals
59%
Kelantan FA 2+ goals
22%
Kelantan FA 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
84%
Kelantan FA (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Kelantan FA away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.00 + Kelantan FA defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kelantan FA attack 0.71 + Sabah FA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sabah FA scores more
69%
level
18%
Kelantan FA scores more
13%

Sabah FA at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Sabah FA 2–1 Kelantan FA

Sabah FA beat Kelantan FA 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium Likas in Kota Kinablu.