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Kelantan FA vs Sabah FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Kelantan FA
Kelantan FA
FT
2 – 2
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
9/30/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadium Sultan Mohammad IV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kelantan FA20%
×Draw22%
Sabah FA57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelantan FA
1.03
Sabah FA
1.89

Sabah FA creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kelantan FA
0.67
Sabah FA
1.27

allows per match

Kelantan FA
2.50
Sabah FA
1.40

finishing

Kelantan FA+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelantan FA ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kelantan FA or draw
43%
Kelantan FA or Sabah FA
78%
Draw or Sabah FA
80%

Winning margin

Kelantan FA wins by 2+
7%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kelantan FA 1+ goals
64%
Kelantan FA 2+ goals
28%
Kelantan FA 3+ goals
9%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
85%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
56%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kelantan FA (draw refunded)
26%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelantan FA at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelantan FA attack 0.67 + Sabah FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sabah FA attack 1.27 + Kelantan FA defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kelantan FA scores more
20%
level
22%
Sabah FA scores more
57%

Sabah FA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kelantan FA vs Sabah FA

Kelantan FA and Sabah FA drew 2-2 in Malaysia Cup on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium Sultan Mohammad IV in Kota Bharu.