Sabah FA 4–1 Hai Phong: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Sabah FA

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hai Phong

Jafri Firdaus Chew 90+5'

Gabriel Peres 70'

Darren Lok 34'

Daniel Ting 20'

Yuri Mamute 85'

11/9/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Likas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sabah FA62%

×Draw18%

Hai Phong19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sabah FAExpected goals in this matchHai Phong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.33

Sabah FA

2.50

Hai Phong

1.33

Sabah FA creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Sabah FA

2.67

Hai Phong

1.00

allows per match

Sabah FA

1.67

Hai Phong

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par

Hai Phong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Hai Phong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw

81%

Sabah FA or Hai Phong

82%

Draw or Hai Phong

38%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+

41%

Hai Phong wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals

92%

Sabah FA 2+ goals

71%

Sabah FA 3+ goals

45%

Hai Phong 1+ goals

74%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

38%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)

77%

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hai Phong away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 2.67 + Hai Phong defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hai Phong attack 1.00 + Sabah FA defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sabah FA scores more

62%

level

18%

Hai Phong scores more

19%

Sabah FA at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Gabriel Peres

Sabah FA · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

Daniel Ting

33'

Viet Hung Trieu

34'

Darren Lok↳ S. Ramdani

37'

Saddil Ramdani

46'

Lucão do Break← M. Lo

47'

Bicou Bissainthe

65'

Gary Steven Robbat← Darren Lok

70'

Gabriel Peres↳ S. Ramdani

72'

Miguel Cifuentes

75'

Manh Hung Pham

76'

B. van Meurs← Phạm Mạnh Hùng

76'

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh← Nguyễn Hữu Sơn

76'

Hồ Minh Dĩ← Lương Hoàng Nam

78'

Rawilson Batuil← Gabriel Peres

83'

Tae Su Park

85'

Yuri Mamute↳ Hồ Minh Dĩ

88'

Jafri Firdaus Chew← S. Ramdani

89'

Irfan Zakaria← Park Tae-Su

90+5'

Jafri Firdaus Chew↳ Ramon Machado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SabahHai

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots20

3Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots20

11On Target4

2Off Target12

0Blocked4

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box11

Passing

43%Possession57%

309Total Passes393

228Accurate Passes313

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2