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Hai Phong vs Sabah FA — AFC Cup 2018

Hai Phong
Hai Phong
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
10/25/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Sân vận động Lạch Tray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hai Phong55%
×Draw19%
Sabah FA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hai Phong
2.54
Sabah FA
1.71

Hai Phong creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hai Phong
3.33
Sabah FA
2.75

allows per match

Hai Phong
0.67
Sabah FA
1.75

finishing

Hai Phong+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hai Phong ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hai Phong or draw
74%
Hai Phong or Sabah FA
81%
Draw or Sabah FA
45%

Winning margin

Hai Phong wins by 2+
35%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hai Phong 1+ goals
92%
Hai Phong 2+ goals
72%
Hai Phong 3+ goals
46%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
82%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
51%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hai Phong (draw refunded)
68%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hai Phong at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hai Phong attack 3.33 + Sabah FA defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sabah FA attack 2.75 + Hai Phong defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hai Phong scores more
55%
level
19%
Sabah FA scores more
26%

Hai Phong at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hai Phong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Hai Phong 3–2 Sabah FA

Hai Phong beat Sabah FA 3-2 in AFC Cup on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Lạch Tray in Hai Phong.