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Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
11/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell37%
×Draw32%
Real Sociedad II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
0.99
Real Sociedad II
0.88

Sabadell creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sabadell
1.05
Real Sociedad II
0.92

allows per match

Sabadell
0.84
Real Sociedad II
0.92

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
69%
Sabadell or Real Sociedad II
68%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
63%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
14%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
63%
Sabadell 2+ goals
26%
Sabadell 3+ goals
8%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
59%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
22%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
54%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.05 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Sabadell defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sabadell scores more
37%
level
32%
Real Sociedad II scores more
31%

Sabadell at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sabadell 1 – 2 Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Sabadell 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.