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Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sabadell
Sabadell
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
11/5/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sabadell40%
×Draw29%
Real Sociedad II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell
1.19
Real Sociedad II
1.00

Sabadell creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sabadell
1.21
Real Sociedad II
1.26

allows per match

Sabadell
0.74
Real Sociedad II
1.17

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw
69%
Sabadell or Real Sociedad II
71%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
60%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+
17%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals
70%
Sabadell 2+ goals
33%
Sabadell 3+ goals
12%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
63%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
26%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)
57%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sabadell scores more
40%
level
29%
Real Sociedad II scores more
31%

Sabadell at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Sabadell 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.