Sabadell 2–2 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Osasuna II

5/27/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sabadell48%

×Draw28%

Osasuna II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.85

Sabadell

1.35

Osasuna II

0.85

Sabadell creates 59% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

0.96

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

76%

Sabadell or Osasuna II

72%

Draw or Osasuna II

52%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

23%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

74%

Sabadell 2+ goals

39%

Sabadell 3+ goals

15%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

57%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

21%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

67%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sabadell scores more

48%

level

28%

Osasuna II scores more

24%

Sabadell at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff