Osasuna II 2–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sabadell

12/18/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Instalaciones Deportivas de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Osasuna II43%

×Draw27%

Sabadell30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.08

Osasuna II

1.35

Sabadell

1.08

Osasuna II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 57 away

1.63

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.63

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Osasuna II

0.93

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

70%

Osasuna II or Sabadell

73%

Draw or Sabadell

57%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

20%

Sabadell wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

74%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

39%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

15%

Sabadell 1+ goals

66%

Sabadell 2+ goals

29%

Sabadell 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

59%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osasuna II scores more

43%

level

27%

Sabadell scores more

30%

Osasuna II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff