Sabadell 0–1 Numancia: Result & Stats

Sabadell

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Numancia

Íñigo Muñoz 40'

2/11/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sabadell44%

×Draw33%

Numancia24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SabadellExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.69

Sabadell

1.05

Numancia

0.69

Sabadell creates 52% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

0.74

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Sabadell

1.21

Numancia

0.63

allows per match

Sabadell

0.74

Numancia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sabadell+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Sabadell or draw

76%

Sabadell or Numancia

67%

Draw or Numancia

56%

Winning margin

Sabadell wins by 2+

18%

Numancia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sabadell 1+ goals

65%

Sabadell 2+ goals

28%

Sabadell 3+ goals

9%

Numancia 1+ goals

50%

Numancia 2+ goals

15%

Numancia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sabadell (draw refunded)

65%

Numancia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell attack 1.21 + Numancia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Numancia attack 0.63 + Sabadell defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sabadell scores more

44%

level

33%

Numancia scores more

24%

Sabadell at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Íñigo Muñoz

46'

David Astals← Adán Gurdiel

55'

Alberto← Cristian Herrera

60'

G. Ayesa

64'

Arthur

65'

P. V. Delgado

73'

Álex Gualda← Sergi Altimira

75'

Antonio Cotán← Arthur

75'

Borja San Emeterio← Dani Sánchez

80'

Julián Mahicas← Rubén Mesa

85'

R. Pujol

85'

Jaume Piñol← Juanmi Carrión

90+3'

C. Morgado

90'

Jesús Tamayo← Íñigo Muñoz

Sabadell

Numancia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miki Lladó

46'▲David Astals←▼Adán Gurdiel

55'▲Alberto←▼Cristian Herrera

73'▲Álex Gualda←▼Sergi Altimira

85'▲Jaume Piñol←▼Juanmi Carrión

Sabadell substitutes

AstalsAlbertoGualdaPiñolOrtoláArmandoDiesteLópezMarcVargasRestaBaena

Manager: Iñaki Bea

75'▲Antonio Cotán←▼Arthur

75'▲Borja San Emeterio←▼Dani Sánchez

80'▲Julián Mahicas←▼Rubén Mesa

90'▲Jesús Tamayo←▼Íñigo Muñoz

Numancia substitutes

CotánEmeterioMahicasTamayoZarzanaFabriCarrilloVicario

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Numancia

Numancia beat Sabadell 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 11, 2023.

Goals: Íñigo Muñoz (40').

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.

Sabadell vs Numancia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sabadell vs Numancia