Numancia 3–3 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Sabadell

Rubén Mesa 68'

Julián Mahicas 27'

Dani Sánchez 9'

Alberto 64'

Cristian Dieste 58' (pen), 53'

11/20/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia33%

×Draw30%

Sabadell37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.11

Numancia

1.04

Sabadell

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Sabadell

1.23

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Sabadell

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

63%

Numancia or Sabadell

70%

Draw or Sabadell

67%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

13%

Sabadell wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

65%

Numancia 2+ goals

28%

Numancia 3+ goals

9%

Sabadell 1+ goals

67%

Sabadell 2+ goals

30%

Sabadell 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

47%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Sabadell away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Sabadell defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sabadell attack 1.23 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Numancia scores more

33%

level

30%

Sabadell scores more

37%

Sabadell at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sabadell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

27'

30'

46'

46'

Cristian Dieste← M. Keita

53'

Cristian Dieste

54'

Borja

54'

Jordi Tur← Antonio Cotán

56'

D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

58'

Cristian DiestePenalty

60'

M. Sanhaji← Adrián Mance

60'

M. Šimić← Julián Mahicas

62'

64'

68'

71'

75'

Adán Gurdiel← MarcVargas

75'

Juanmi Carrión← Eudald Vergés

79'

J. Carrion

81'

A. Corbalan

85'

Toni Arranz

89'

F. Roman

Numancia

Sabadell

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mahicas

Manager: Iñaki Bea

54'▲Jordi Tur←▼Antonio Cotán

60'▲M. Sanhaji←▼Adrián Mance

60'▲M. Šimić←▼Julián Mahicas

Numancia substitutes

TurSanhajiŠimićArthurGilCarrilloValínGarcíaVicario

Manager: Gabri

46'▲Álex Sala←▼Armando

46'▲Cristian Dieste←▼M. Keita

75'▲Adán Gurdiel←▼MarcVargas

75'▲Juanmi Carrión←▼Eudald Vergés

Sabadell substitutes

SalaDiesteGurdielCarriónGualdaMolinaAthumanLópezDelgadoRestaGarcíaVidal

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Numancia 3–3 Sabadell

Numancia and Sabadell drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 20, 2022.

Goals: Dani Sánchez (9'), Julián Mahicas (27'), Cristian Dieste (53', 58' pen), Alberto (64'), Rubén Mesa (68').

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.

Numancia vs Sabadell — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Numancia 3–3 Sabadell