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Sabadell II vs Manresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manresa
Manresa
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II26%
×Draw28%
Manresa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
0.94
Manresa
1.33

Manresa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Manresa
1.26

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Manresa
1.05

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Manresa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Manresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
54%
Sabadell II or Manresa
72%
Draw or Manresa
74%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
9%
Manresa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
61%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
24%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
7%
Manresa 1+ goals
74%
Manresa 2+ goals
38%
Manresa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
37%
Manresa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Manresa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Manresa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Manresa attack 1.26 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sabadell II scores more
26%
level
28%
Manresa scores more
46%

Manresa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Manresa

Sabadell II and Manresa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.