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Manresa vs Sabadell II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Manresa
Manresa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sabadell II
Sabadell II
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio El Congost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manresa46%
×Draw26%
Sabadell II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manresa
1.52
Sabadell II
1.13

Manresa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manresa
1.23
Sabadell II
1.47

allows per match

Manresa
0.78
Sabadell II
1.82

finishing

Manresa+0.00on par
Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manresa ↓

Sabadell II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Manresa or draw
72%
Manresa or Sabadell II
74%
Draw or Sabadell II
54%

Winning margin

Manresa wins by 2+
23%
Sabadell II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manresa 1+ goals
78%
Manresa 2+ goals
45%
Manresa 3+ goals
20%
Sabadell II 1+ goals
68%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
31%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manresa (draw refunded)
62%
Sabadell II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manresa at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.78 · 77 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manresa attack 1.23 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Manresa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manresa scores more
46%
level
26%
Sabadell II scores more
28%

Manresa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manresa vs Sabadell II

Manresa beat Sabadell II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Congost in Manresa.