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Sabadell II vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Girona II
Girona II
11/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II24%
×Draw28%
Girona II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
0.86
Girona II
1.32

Girona II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
53%
Sabadell II or Girona II
72%
Draw or Girona II
76%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
8%
Girona II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
58%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
21%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
6%
Girona II 1+ goals
73%
Girona II 2+ goals
38%
Girona II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
34%
Girona II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Girona II attack 1.23 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sabadell II scores more
24%
level
28%
Girona II scores more
47%

Girona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Girona II

Girona II beat Sabadell II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.