Girona II 3–4 Sabadell II: Result & Stats

Girona II

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Sabadell II

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Girona II48%

×Draw23%

Sabadell II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchSabadell II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.30

Girona II

1.77

Sabadell II

1.30

Girona II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.72

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Sabadell II

1.47

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Sabadell II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Sabadell II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Sabadell II →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

72%

Girona II or Sabadell II

77%

Draw or Sabadell II

52%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

26%

Sabadell II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

83%

Girona II 2+ goals

53%

Girona II 3+ goals

26%

Sabadell II 1+ goals

73%

Sabadell II 2+ goals

37%

Sabadell II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

63%

Sabadell II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Sabadell II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Sabadell II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sabadell II attack 1.47 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Girona II scores more

48%

level

23%

Sabadell II scores more

28%

Girona II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff