Saarbrücken U19 0–5 Preußen Münster U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Preußen Münster U19

Y. Blaszyk 49'

J. Zimmermann 20'

B. Leiter 13'

T. Mehnert 11', 7'

3/30/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 8Sportplatz Quierschied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1930%

×Draw21%

Preußen Münster U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.06

Saarbrücken U19

1.61

Preußen Münster U19

2.06

Preußen Münster U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

1.21

creates per match

1.66

2.45

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Preußen Münster U19

1.66

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Preußen Münster U19

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

52%

Saarbrücken U19 or Preußen Münster U19

79%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

70%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

14%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

80%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

48%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

22%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

87%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

61%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.61

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

48%

Preußen Münster U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

11'

13'

20'

22'

49'

60'

V. Ahmedi← N. Varelmann

60'

P. Pöhlmann← M. Völker

60'

L. Wiedemann← Y. Blaszyk

65'

J. Chanot← A. Dos Santos Reis

72'

A. Friedrich← T. Mehnert

76'

S. Bohn← F. Rupp

81'

B. Erdogan← N. Grucza

Saarbrücken

Preußen

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Blaszyk

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. D`Andrea

65'▲J. Chanot←▼A. Dos Santos Reis

76'▲S. Bohn←▼F. Rupp

81'▲B. Erdogan←▼N. Grucza

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ChanotBohnErdoganFerringSeitzerFigliuzzi

Manager: J. Hötting

22'▲L. Schroer←▼V. Uka

60'▲V. Ahmedi←▼N. Varelmann

60'▲P. Pöhlmann←▼M. Völker

60'▲L. Wiedemann←▼Y. Blaszyk

72'▲A. Friedrich←▼T. Mehnert

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

SchroerAhmediPöhlmannWiedemannFriedrichBreuers