Preußen Münster U19 1–2 Saarbrücken U19

Preußen Münster U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

L. Blackmann 21'

E. Erdogan 81'

L. Behr 62'

2/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Preußen Münster U1955%

×Draw20%

Saarbrücken U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen Münster U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.49

Preußen Münster U19

2.30

Saarbrücken U19

1.49

Preußen Münster U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 37 away

1.63

creates per match

1.19

1.79

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.63

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Preußen Münster U19

1.79

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Preußen Münster U19 or draw

75%

Preußen Münster U19 or Saarbrücken U19

80%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

45%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

34%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

90%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

67%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

40%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

77%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

44%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.79 · 63 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.30

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

25%

Preußen Münster U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Dos Santos Reis← S. Figliuzzi

21'

L. Blackmann

46'

B. Erdogan← N. Grucza

55'

B. Leiter← Y. Blaszyk

62'

L. Behr

66'

J. Happi← V. Sahan

81'

E. Erdogan

84'

D. Truckenbrod← M. Demirhan

84'

T. Mehnert← D. Sahin

86'

T. Höfling← V. Uka

86'

Obeida Oubaid Hamad← K. Riffel

Preußen

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Hötting

55'▲B. Leiter←▼Y. Blaszyk

84'▲D. Truckenbrod←▼M. Demirhan

84'▲T. Mehnert←▼D. Sahin

86'▲T. Höfling←▼V. Uka

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

LeiterTruckenbrodMehnertHöflingMenkeBreuersDekarski

Manager: S. D`Andrea

19'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼S. Figliuzzi

46'▲B. Erdogan←▼N. Grucza

66'▲J. Happi←▼V. Sahan

86'▲Obeida Oubaid Hamad←▼K. Riffel

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ReisErdoganHappiHamadVasilchenkoAlfashtaki

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 1–2 Saarbrücken U19

Saarbrücken U19 beat Preußen Münster U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Blackmann (21'), L. Behr (62'), E. Erdogan (81').

The match was played at Sportpark Berg Fidel Platz 1 in Münster.

Preußen Münster U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Preußen Münster U19 1–2 Saarbrücken U19