Saarbrücken U19 1–1 Meerbusch U19: Result & Stats

Saarbrücken U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Meerbusch U19

A. Dos Santos Reis 69'

F. Breuer 12' (pen)

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Saarbrücken U1938%

×Draw22%

Meerbusch U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchMeerbusch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.79

Saarbrücken U19

1.75

Meerbusch U19

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

2.45

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Meerbusch U19

1.14

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Meerbusch U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Meerbusch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

60%

Saarbrücken U19 or Meerbusch U19

78%

Draw or Meerbusch U19

62%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

20%

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

83%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

52%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

25%

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

83%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

53%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Meerbusch U19 away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.75

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.14 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

Meerbusch U19 scores more

40%

Meerbusch U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Meerbusch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

F. BreuerPenalty

33'

J. Ferring← N. Grucza

58'

J. Karakis← Y. El Kandri

58'

K. Mischtal← J. Asamoah

64'

D. Aserov← J. Schlotter

69'

A. Dos Santos Reis

72'

B. Erdogan← A. Dos Santos Reis

72'

D. Güzelcan← F. Rupp

85'

L. Lahi← C. Venos

86'

L. Strewenski← V. Sahan

Saarbrücken

Meerbusch

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Reis

Manager: S. D`Andrea

33'▲J. Ferring←▼N. Grucza

72'▲B. Erdogan←▼A. Dos Santos Reis

72'▲D. Güzelcan←▼F. Rupp

86'▲L. Strewenski←▼V. Sahan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

FerringErdoganGüzelcanStrewenskiRiffelHamadGebhard

Manager: M. Roch

58'▲J. Karakis←▼Y. El Kandri

58'▲K. Mischtal←▼J. Asamoah

64'▲D. Aserov←▼J. Schlotter

85'▲L. Lahi←▼C. Venos

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

KarakisMischtalAserovLahiGrabekBehle