Meerbusch U19 2–2 Saarbrücken U19: Result & Stats

Meerbusch U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Saarbrücken U19

I. Özel 69'

C. Venos 34'

M. Blinn 72' (pen)

D. Güzelcan 32'

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 9Rasenplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Meerbusch U1940%

×Draw21%

Saarbrücken U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meerbusch U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.06

Meerbusch U19

2.09

Saarbrücken U19

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

1.21

creates per match

1.19

2.93

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Meerbusch U19

1.21

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Meerbusch U19

2.93

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meerbusch U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Meerbusch U19 or draw

61%

Meerbusch U19 or Saarbrücken U19

79%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

60%

Winning margin

Meerbusch U19 wins by 2+

22%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Meerbusch U19 1+ goals

88%

Meerbusch U19 2+ goals

62%

Meerbusch U19 3+ goals

34%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

87%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

61%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.93 · 14 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch U19 attack 1.21 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.09

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Meerbusch U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Meerbusch U19 scores more

40%

level

21%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

39%

Meerbusch U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Meerbusch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

D. Güzelcan

34'

C. Venos

46'

M. Blinn← F. Rupp

61'

I. Özel← V. Habarov

61'

P. Müller← C. Venos

61'

J. Coletta← D. Güzelcan

61'

J. Seidel← Obeida Oubaid Hamad

61'

N. Grucza← T. Teadel

69'

I. Özel

72'

M. BlinnPenalty

75'

D. Gyamfi← J. Schlotter

75'

Y. Zeller← J. Asamoah

83'

T. Behle← Y. El Kandri

89'

A. Dos Santos Reis← E. Erdogan

90+2'

S. Bohn← B. Erdogan

Meerbusch

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Roch

61'▲I. Özel←▼V. Habarov

61'▲P. Müller←▼C. Venos

75'▲D. Gyamfi←▼J. Schlotter

75'▲Y. Zeller←▼J. Asamoah

83'▲T. Behle←▼Y. El Kandri

Meerbusch U19 substitutes

ÖzelMüllerGyamfiZellerBehleKarakisGrabek

Manager: S. D`Andrea

46'▲M. Blinn←▼F. Rupp

61'▲J. Coletta←▼D. Güzelcan

61'▲J. Seidel←▼Obeida Oubaid Hamad

61'▲N. Grucza←▼T. Teadel

89'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼E. Erdogan

90+2'▲S. Bohn←▼B. Erdogan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

BlinnColettaSeidelGruczaReisBohnVasilchenko

Match Recap: Meerbusch U19 vs Saarbrücken U19

Meerbusch U19 and Saarbrücken U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: D. Güzelcan (32'), C. Venos (34'), I. Özel (69'), M. Blinn (72' pen).

The match was played at Rasenplatz Lank in Meerbusch.

Meerbusch U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Meerbusch U19 vs Saarbrücken U19