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Saarbrücken U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
CANC
10:00
Kickers Offenbach U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
3/14/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1947%
×Draw21%
Kickers Offenbach U1932%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
2.13
Kickers Offenbach U19
1.72

Saarbrücken U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 47 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Kickers Offenbach U19
0.98

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Kickers Offenbach U19
3.06

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
68%
Saarbrücken U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19
79%
Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19
53%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
27%
Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
88%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
63%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
35%
Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals
82%
Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals
51%
Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more
32%

Saarbrücken U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saarbrücken U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Saarbrücken U19 host Kickers Offenbach U19

March 14, 2021: Saarbrücken U19 take on Kickers Offenbach U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Saarbrücken U19 host Kickers Offenbach U19 at FC Sportfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.