Kickers Offenbach U19 3–1 Saarbrücken U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

P. Besso 43'

Z. Arapi 40'

N. Schywalski 23'

Y. Flausse 47'

8/21/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2SANA-Sportpark Rasenplatz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1950%

×Draw20%

Saarbrücken U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.82

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.37

Saarbrücken U19

1.82

Kickers Offenbach U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

1.77

creates per match

1.19

2.46

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

70%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Saarbrücken U19

80%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

50%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

30%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

91%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

68%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

42%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

84%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

54%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.37

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

30%

Kickers Offenbach U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kickers Offenbach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

N. Schywalski

40'

Z. Arapi

43'

P. Besso

46'

L. Weis← D. Lill

46'

Y. Flausse← F. Geißler

47'

Y. Flausse

55'

M. Aimene← N. Schywalski

67'

D. Starodid← Z. Arapi

72'

A. Lazzano← L. Östlund

81'

N. Acun← U. Nassery

81'

J. Magar← T. Krämer

85'

N. Maksic← Z. Daaou

Kickers

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Schywalsk

Mahmuti

⚽

▼

Arapi

Hagen

Manager: R. Trabert

55'▲M. Aimene←▼N. Schywalski

67'▲D. Starodid←▼Z. Arapi

81'▲N. Acun←▼U. Nassery

85'▲N. Maksic←▼Z. Daaou

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

AimeneStarodidAcunMaksicWeiperIraqiZengin

Manager: E. Melunovic

46'▲L. Weis←▼D. Lill

46'▲Y. Flausse←▼F. Geißler

72'▲A. Lazzano←▼L. Östlund

81'▲J. Magar←▼T. Krämer

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WeisFlausseLazzanoMagarHartzKonradWeber