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Saarbrücken U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
CANC
10:00
Ingolstadt U19
Ingolstadt U19
11/7/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1924%
×Draw20%
Ingolstadt U1956%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
1.46
Ingolstadt U19
2.28

Ingolstadt U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 73 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Ingolstadt U19
2.10

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Ingolstadt U19
1.71

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
44%
Saarbrücken U19 or Ingolstadt U19
80%
Draw or Ingolstadt U19
76%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
11%
Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
77%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
43%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
18%
Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals
90%
Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals
66%
Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
30%
Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
24%
level
20%
Ingolstadt U19 scores more
56%

Ingolstadt U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Saarbrücken U19 host Ingolstadt U19

November 7, 2020: Saarbrücken U19 take on Ingolstadt U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Saarbrücken U19 host Ingolstadt U19 at FC Sportfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.