Ingolstadt U19 3–2 Saarbrücken U19: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Saarbrücken U19

J. Krupa 60', 16' (pen)

J. Birkl 12'

S. Maas 84'

T. Wachall 24'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Audi Sportpark - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ingolstadt U1963%

×Draw18%

Saarbrücken U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.30

Ingolstadt U19

2.49

Saarbrücken U19

1.30

Ingolstadt U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

2.01

creates per match

1.19

1.41

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

81%

Ingolstadt U19 or Saarbrücken U19

82%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

37%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

41%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

92%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

71%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

45%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

73%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

37%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.49

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

19%

Ingolstadt U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Birkl

16'

J. KrupaPenalty

24'

T. Wachall

60'

J. Krupa

65'

B. Causevic← I. Madougou

65'

Y. Flausse← J. Magar

73'

M. Simsek← H. Dorst

81'

L. Weis← E. Metaj

84'

S. Maas

87'

F. Geißler← I. Smith

90+2'

F. Brunner← M. Udebuluzor

90+1'

M. Atak← J. Krupa

Ingolstadt

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Krupa

Riedl

▼

Udebuluzo

Manager: S. Wittmann

65'▲B. Causevic←▼I. Madougou

90+2'▲F. Brunner←▼M. Udebuluzor

90+1'▲M. Atak←▼J. Krupa

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

CausevicBrunnerAtakAlišanovićSekulovicContiDehler

Manager: E. Melunovic

65'▲Y. Flausse←▼J. Magar

73'▲M. Simsek←▼H. Dorst

81'▲L. Weis←▼E. Metaj

87'▲F. Geißler←▼I. Smith

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

FlausseSimsekWeisGeißlerLazzanoMutterWeber

U19 Bundesliga: Ingolstadt U19 3–2 Saarbrücken U19

Ingolstadt U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 5, 2022.

Goals: J. Birkl (12'), J. Krupa (16' pen, 60'), T. Wachall (24'), S. Maas (84').

The match was played at Audi Sportpark - Platz 5 in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Ingolstadt U19 3–2 Saarbrücken U19