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Saarbrücken U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
J. Meeß 73'
J. Fields 55', 32', 25', 22'
N. Abraha 5'
9/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1921%
×Draw18%
Hoffenheim U1961%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
1.48
Hoffenheim U19
2.62

Hoffenheim U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Hoffenheim U19
2.79

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Hoffenheim U19
1.75

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
39%
Saarbrücken U19 or Hoffenheim U19
82%
Draw or Hoffenheim U19
79%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
9%
Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
77%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
43%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
19%
Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
93%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
73%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
21%
level
18%
Hoffenheim U19 scores more
61%

Hoffenheim U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Abraha
22'
J. Fields
25'
J. Fields
32'
J. Fields
55'
J. Fields
73'
J. Meeß
Saarbrücken
Hoffenheim
S. D`Andrea
Manager: S. D`Andrea
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

Saarbrücken U19 0 – 6 Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 13, 2025.

Goals: N. Abraha (5'), J. Fields (22', 25', 32', 55'), J. Meeß (73').

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.