Saarbrücken U19 2–3 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Arminia Bielefeld U19

D. Güzelcan 87'

N. Grucza 83'

L. Afolabi 44', 9'

T. Coşar 33'

3/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 7Kunstrasenplatz am FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1933%

×Draw22%

Arminia Bielefeld U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.95

Saarbrücken U19

1.64

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.95

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 62 away

1.21

creates per match

1.44

2.45

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

55%

Saarbrücken U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

78%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

67%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

16%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

81%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

49%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

23%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

86%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

58%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

45%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

20'

33'

44'

46'

N. Grucza← B. Erdogan

46'

J. Coletta← A. Dos Santos Reis

54'

Obeida Oubaid Hamad← S. Figliuzzi

67'

E. Arda← G. Gutmann

67'

L. Unruh← T. Coşar

68'

D. Güzelcan← T. Teadel

73'

B. Afghanyar← L. Afolabi

73'

M. Kuczkowiak← D. Richter

80'

S. Bohn← E. Erdogan

83'

N. Grucza

87'

D. Güzelcan

Saarbrücken

Arminia

Zaloha

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. D`Andrea

46'▲N. Grucza←▼B. Erdogan

46'▲J. Coletta←▼A. Dos Santos Reis

54'▲Obeida Oubaid Hamad←▼S. Figliuzzi

68'▲D. Güzelcan←▼T. Teadel

80'▲S. Bohn←▼E. Erdogan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

GruczaColettaHamadGüzelcanBohnFerring

Manager: M. Drobe

20'▲T. Wegener←▼J. Lübke

67'▲E. Arda←▼G. Gutmann

67'▲L. Unruh←▼T. Coşar

73'▲B. Afghanyar←▼L. Afolabi

73'▲M. Kuczkowiak←▼D. Richter

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

WegenerArdaUnruhAfghanyarKuczkowiakKollmeier

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 22, 2025.

Goals: L. Afolabi (9', 44'), T. Coşar (33'), N. Grucza (83'), D. Güzelcan (87').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz am FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.

Saarbrücken U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19