Arminia Bielefeld U19 6–1 Saarbrücken U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

B. Afghanyar 90'

L. Dick 40'

T. Krüger 32', 17'

L. Afolabi 29'

H. Obermeyer 6'

M. Blinn 55'

5/17/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 14Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1957%

×Draw20%

Saarbrücken U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.31

Saarbrücken U19

1.44

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 37 away

1.66

creates per match

1.19

1.69

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.66

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.69

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

77%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Saarbrücken U19

80%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

43%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

35%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

90%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

67%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

40%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

76%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

42%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.31

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

23%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

17'

29'

32'

40'

46'

L. Haase← L. Dick

46'

T. Coşar← T. Wegener

46'

A. Mees← J. Ferring

46'

J. Chanot← M. Seitzer

46'

S. Bohn← V. Sahan

55'

M. Blinn

59'

L. Strewenski← Obeida Oubaid Hamad

59'

J. Strässer← L. Althaus

61'

B. Afghanyar← L. Afolabi

61'

L. Unruh← M. Lippert

76'

J. Seidel← T. Teadel

80'

J. Jeesin← D. Richter

80'

I. Engin← M. Gouiffe à Goufan

90'

B. Afghanyar

Arminia

Saarbrücken

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Afolabi

▼

Lippert

Bärenwald

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Drobe

46'▲L. Haase←▼L. Dick

46'▲T. Coşar←▼T. Wegener

61'▲B. Afghanyar←▼L. Afolabi

61'▲L. Unruh←▼M. Lippert

80'▲J. Jeesin←▼D. Richter

80'▲I. Engin←▼M. Gouiffe à Goufan

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

HaaseCoşarAfghanyarUnruhJeesinEnginJäger

Manager: S. D`Andrea

46'▲A. Mees←▼J. Ferring

46'▲J. Chanot←▼M. Seitzer

46'▲S. Bohn←▼V. Sahan

59'▲L. Strewenski←▼Obeida Oubaid Hamad

59'▲J. Strässer←▼L. Althaus

76'▲J. Seidel←▼T. Teadel

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

MeesChanotBohnStrewenskiSträsserSeidel