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Səbail vs Qabala — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Qabala
Qabala
12/15/2023Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 17ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Səbail39%
×Draw27%
Qabala35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
1.32
Qabala
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Qabala
1.00

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Qabala
1.68

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Qabala+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Qabala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
65%
Səbail or Qabala
73%
Draw or Qabala
61%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
17%
Qabala wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
73%
Səbail 2+ goals
38%
Səbail 3+ goals
15%
Qabala 1+ goals
71%
Qabala 2+ goals
35%
Qabala 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
53%
Qabala (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Qabala away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Qabala defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Qabala attack 1.00 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Səbail scores more
39%
level
27%
Qabala scores more
35%

Səbail at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Səbail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Səbail vs Qabala

Səbail beat Qabala 3-0 in Premyer Liqa on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.