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Qabala vs Səbail — Premyer Liqa 2019

Qabala
Qabala
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Səbail
Səbail
3/3/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 25Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Qabala48%
×Draw26%
Səbail27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qabala
1.52
Səbail
1.07

Qabala creates 42% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Qabala
1.16
Səbail
0.82

allows per match

Qabala
1.32
Səbail
1.89

finishing

Qabala+0.00on par
Səbail+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qabala ↓

Səbail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Qabala or draw
73%
Qabala or Səbail
74%
Draw or Səbail
52%

Winning margin

Qabala wins by 2+
24%
Səbail wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qabala 1+ goals
78%
Qabala 2+ goals
45%
Qabala 3+ goals
20%
Səbail 1+ goals
66%
Səbail 2+ goals
29%
Səbail 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Qabala (draw refunded)
64%
Səbail (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qabala at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 91 matches

Səbail away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qabala attack 1.16 + Səbail defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Səbail attack 0.82 + Qabala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Qabala scores more
48%
level
26%
Səbail scores more
27%

Qabala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qabala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Qabala 2–3 Səbail

Səbail beat Qabala 3-2 in Premyer Liqa on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Qəbələ.