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Rynninge vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Rynninge
Rynninge
FT
6 – 1
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
8/28/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 22Grenadjärvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rynninge34%
×Draw20%
IFK Eskilstuna46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rynninge
1.96
IFK Eskilstuna
2.31

IFK Eskilstuna creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rynninge
1.50
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Rynninge
3.20
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Rynninge+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rynninge ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Rynninge or draw
54%
Rynninge or IFK Eskilstuna
80%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
66%

Winning margin

Rynninge wins by 2+
18%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rynninge 1+ goals
86%
Rynninge 2+ goals
58%
Rynninge 3+ goals
31%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
90%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
67%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Rynninge (draw refunded)
42%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rynninge at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.20 · 20 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rynninge attack 1.50 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Rynninge defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rynninge scores more
34%
level
20%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
46%

IFK Eskilstuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Rynninge 6–1 IFK Eskilstuna

Rynninge beat IFK Eskilstuna 6-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Grenadjärvallen in Örebro.