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IFK Eskilstuna vs Rynninge — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
FT
4 – 2
Rynninge
Rynninge
11/7/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 6Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna56%
×Draw20%
Rynninge25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Eskilstuna
2.38
Rynninge
1.55

IFK Eskilstuna creates 54% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 21 away

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.76
Rynninge
1.19

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.92
Rynninge
3.00

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Rynninge+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Rynninge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw
75%
IFK Eskilstuna or Rynninge
80%
Draw or Rynninge
44%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
35%
Rynninge wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
91%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
68%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
42%
Rynninge 1+ goals
79%
Rynninge 2+ goals
46%
Rynninge 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
69%
Rynninge (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Rynninge away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Rynninge defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Rynninge attack 1.19 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more
56%
level
20%
Rynninge scores more
25%

IFK Eskilstuna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IFK Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: IFK Eskilstuna 4–2 Rynninge

IFK Eskilstuna beat Rynninge 4-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.