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Rynninge vs Carlstad United — Ettan - Norra 2019

Rynninge
Rynninge
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Carlstad United
Carlstad United
5/29/2019Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Round 10Pettersbergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rynninge33%
×Draw22%
Carlstad United45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rynninge
1.64
Carlstad United
1.96

Carlstad United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rynninge
1.88
Carlstad United
1.73

allows per match

Rynninge
2.19
Carlstad United
1.40

finishing

Rynninge+0.00on par
Carlstad United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rynninge ↓

Carlstad United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rynninge or draw
55%
Rynninge or Carlstad United
78%
Draw or Carlstad United
67%

Winning margin

Rynninge wins by 2+
16%
Carlstad United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Rynninge 1+ goals
81%
Rynninge 2+ goals
49%
Rynninge 3+ goals
23%
Carlstad United 1+ goals
86%
Carlstad United 2+ goals
58%
Carlstad United 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rynninge (draw refunded)
42%
Carlstad United (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rynninge at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Carlstad United away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rynninge attack 1.88 + Carlstad United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

Carlstad United attack 1.73 + Rynninge defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rynninge scores more
33%
level
22%
Carlstad United scores more
45%

Carlstad United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Carlstad United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rynninge vs Carlstad United

Rynninge beat Carlstad United 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on May 29, 2019.

The match was played at Pettersbergs IP in Örebro.