Carlstad United 3–3 Rynninge: Result & Stats

Carlstad United

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Rynninge

9/7/2019

Ettan - Norra · Round 22Tingvalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carlstad United60%

×Draw19%

Rynninge21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlstad UnitedExpected goals in this matchRynninge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.39

Carlstad United

2.44

Rynninge

1.39

Carlstad United creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

2.00

creates per match

1.31

1.47

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Carlstad United

2.00

Rynninge

1.31

allows per match

Carlstad United

1.47

Rynninge

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlstad United+0.00on par

Rynninge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlstad United ↓

Rynninge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Carlstad United or draw

79%

Carlstad United or Rynninge

81%

Draw or Rynninge

40%

Winning margin

Carlstad United wins by 2+

39%

Rynninge wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Carlstad United 1+ goals

91%

Carlstad United 2+ goals

70%

Carlstad United 3+ goals

43%

Rynninge 1+ goals

75%

Rynninge 2+ goals

40%

Rynninge 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Carlstad United (draw refunded)

74%

Rynninge (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlstad United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Rynninge away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlstad United attack 2.00 + Rynninge defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Rynninge attack 1.31 + Carlstad United defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Carlstad United scores more

60%

level

19%

Rynninge scores more

21%

Carlstad United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Carlstad United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff