Rydalmere Lions 5–0 Northern Tigers: Result & Stats

Rydalmere Lions

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Northern Tigers

4/26/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 12Rydalmere Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rydalmere Lions40%

×Draw23%

Northern Tigers36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rydalmere LionsExpected goals in this matchNorthern Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.56

Rydalmere Lions

1.65

Northern Tigers

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

1.88

creates per match

1.73

1.40

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rydalmere Lions

1.88

Northern Tigers

1.73

allows per match

Rydalmere Lions

1.40

Northern Tigers

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rydalmere Lions ↓

Northern Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rydalmere Lions or draw

64%

Rydalmere Lions or Northern Tigers

77%

Draw or Northern Tigers

60%

Winning margin

Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+

20%

Northern Tigers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals

81%

Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals

49%

Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals

23%

Northern Tigers 1+ goals

79%

Northern Tigers 2+ goals

46%

Northern Tigers 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)

52%

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rydalmere Lions at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.88 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rydalmere Lions scores more

40%

level

23%

Northern Tigers scores more

36%

Rydalmere Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff