Northern Tigers 1–3 Rydalmere Lions: Result & Stats

Northern Tigers

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Rydalmere Lions

8/9/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 27North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Northern Tigers53%

×Draw22%

Rydalmere Lions26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern TigersExpected goals in this matchRydalmere Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.35

Northern Tigers

2.01

Rydalmere Lions

1.35

Northern Tigers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 56 away

2.05

creates per match

1.57

1.14

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Northern Tigers

2.05

Rydalmere Lions

1.57

allows per match

Northern Tigers

1.14

Rydalmere Lions

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Rydalmere Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw

74%

Northern Tigers or Rydalmere Lions

78%

Draw or Rydalmere Lions

47%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+

31%

Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals

87%

Northern Tigers 2+ goals

59%

Northern Tigers 3+ goals

32%

Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals

74%

Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals

39%

Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)

67%

Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Rydalmere Lions away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.01

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.57 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northern Tigers scores more

53%

level

22%

Rydalmere Lions scores more

26%

Northern Tigers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff