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Rydalmere Lions vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Rydalmere Lions
Rydalmere Lions
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
8/24/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Rydalmere Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rydalmere Lions55%
×Draw23%
Nepean22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rydalmere Lions
1.77
Nepean
1.03

Rydalmere Lions creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rydalmere Lions
1.88
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Rydalmere Lions
1.40
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rydalmere Lions ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rydalmere Lions or draw
78%
Rydalmere Lions or Nepean
77%
Draw or Nepean
45%

Winning margin

Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+
31%
Nepean wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals
83%
Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals
53%
Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals
26%
Nepean 1+ goals
64%
Nepean 2+ goals
28%
Nepean 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)
71%
Nepean (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rydalmere Lions at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.88 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nepean attack 0.67 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rydalmere Lions scores more
55%
level
23%
Nepean scores more
22%

Rydalmere Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rydalmere Lions vs Nepean

Nepean beat Rydalmere Lions 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Rydalmere Park in Rydalmere.