Nepean 1–3 Rydalmere Lions: Result & Stats

Nepean

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Rydalmere Lions

5/17/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 15Jamison Park Field 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean33%

×Draw23%

Rydalmere Lions44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NepeanExpected goals in this matchRydalmere Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.82

Nepean

1.55

Rydalmere Lions

1.82

Rydalmere Lions creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

1.13

creates per match

1.57

2.07

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Nepean

1.13

Rydalmere Lions

1.57

allows per match

Nepean

2.07

Rydalmere Lions

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par

Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Rydalmere Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Nepean or draw

56%

Nepean or Rydalmere Lions

77%

Draw or Rydalmere Lions

67%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+

16%

Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals

79%

Nepean 2+ goals

46%

Nepean 3+ goals

20%

Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals

84%

Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals

54%

Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)

43%

Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Rydalmere Lions away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.57 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nepean scores more

33%

level

23%

Rydalmere Lions scores more

44%

Rydalmere Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff