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Ryazan vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Ryazan
Ryazan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fakel II
Fakel II
9/18/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ryazan62%
×Draw22%
Fakel II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ryazan
1.86
Fakel II
0.83

Ryazan creates 124% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ryazan
1.35
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Ryazan
1.13
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Ryazan+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ryazan or draw
84%
Ryazan or Fakel II
78%
Draw or Fakel II
38%

Winning margin

Ryazan wins by 2+
36%
Fakel II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ryazan 1+ goals
84%
Ryazan 2+ goals
55%
Ryazan 3+ goals
28%
Fakel II 1+ goals
56%
Fakel II 2+ goals
20%
Fakel II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ryazan (draw refunded)
79%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan attack 1.35 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Ryazan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ryazan scores more
62%
level
22%
Fakel II scores more
16%

Ryazan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ryazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Ryazan 1–1 Fakel II

Ryazan and Fakel II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Ryazan'.