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Fakel II vs Ryazan — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Ryazan
Ryazan
4/29/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II24%
×Draw26%
Ryazan50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
0.99
Ryazan
1.54

Ryazan creates 56% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Ryazan
1.26

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Ryazan
1.08

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Ryazan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Ryazan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
50%
Fakel II or Ryazan
74%
Draw or Ryazan
76%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
9%
Ryazan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
63%
Fakel II 2+ goals
26%
Fakel II 3+ goals
8%
Ryazan 1+ goals
79%
Ryazan 2+ goals
45%
Ryazan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
33%
Ryazan (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Ryazan away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Ryazan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Ryazan attack 1.26 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fakel II scores more
24%
level
26%
Ryazan scores more
50%

Ryazan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ryazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Fakel II 1–2 Ryazan

Ryazan beat Fakel II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.