RWDM 1–0 KRC Genk II: Result & Stats | League #145

RWDM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KRC Genk II

Marsoni Sambu 14'

1/24/2025

League #145 · Round 19Edmond Machtensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

RWDM44%

×Draw27%

KRC Genk II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RWDMExpected goals in this matchKRC Genk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

RWDM

1.40

KRC Genk II

1.10

RWDM creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

RWDM

1.00

KRC Genk II

1.00

allows per match

RWDM

1.20

KRC Genk II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RWDM+0.00on par

KRC Genk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM ↓

KRC Genk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

RWDM or draw

70%

RWDM or KRC Genk II

73%

Draw or KRC Genk II

56%

Winning margin

RWDM wins by 2+

21%

KRC Genk II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

RWDM 1+ goals

75%

RWDM 2+ goals

41%

RWDM 3+ goals

17%

KRC Genk II 1+ goals

67%

KRC Genk II 2+ goals

30%

KRC Genk II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

RWDM (draw refunded)

60%

KRC Genk II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

KRC Genk II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM attack 1.00 + KRC Genk II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

KRC Genk II attack 1.00 + RWDM defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RWDM scores more

44%

level

27%

KRC Genk II scores more

30%

RWDM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RWDM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Lathouwers

RWDM · G

7.9

Match Events

14'

Marsoni Sambu↳ I. Ziani

46'

J. Kongolo← A. Palacios

60'

Lorenzo Youndje

61'

N. Dodeigne← A. Laâziri

61'

S. Abe← Romildo Del Piage

61'

P. Kestens← S. Benjdida

67'

S. Touré← D. Nzoko

67'

W. Da Costa← C. Nuozzi

70'

M. Biron← G. Robail

83'

M. Wamu Oyatambwe← Z. Bafdili

83'

Kim Myeong-Jun← K. Pierre

85'

A. De Sart← P. Parzyszek

90+5'

Mickaël Biron

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RWDMKRC

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots7

4Corners2

7Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target2

8Off Target2

3Blocked3

13Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

483Total Passes381

414Accurate Passes296

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

6Offsides0