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KRC Genk II vs RWDM — League #145 2026

KRC Genk II
KRC Genk II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
RWDM
RWDM
M. Lemmens 76'
V. Adamo 58'
1/27/2026League #145League #145 · Round 22Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

KRC Genk II26%
×Draw32%
RWDM42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KRC Genk II
0.77
RWDM
1.06

RWDM creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

KRC Genk II
0.67
RWDM
1.29

allows per match

KRC Genk II
0.83
RWDM
0.86

finishing

KRC Genk II+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KRC Genk II ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

KRC Genk II or draw
58%
KRC Genk II or RWDM
68%
Draw or RWDM
74%

Winning margin

KRC Genk II wins by 2+
8%
RWDM wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KRC Genk II 1+ goals
54%
KRC Genk II 2+ goals
18%
KRC Genk II 3+ goals
4%
RWDM 1+ goals
65%
RWDM 2+ goals
29%
RWDM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KRC Genk II (draw refunded)
38%
RWDM (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KRC Genk II at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

RWDM away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KRC Genk II attack 0.67 + RWDM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

RWDM attack 1.29 + KRC Genk II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KRC Genk II scores more
26%
level
32%
RWDM scores more
42%

RWDM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "RWDM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

83
M. LemmensRWDMRWDM · D
8.3

Match Events

4'
Michiel Cauwel
19'
Sapata
56'
A. Maurer← Sapata
56'
U. Simbakoli← Jacob Montes
58'
V. Adamo↳ O. Szulc
73'
Oskar Szulc
75'
Manu Mocsnik
76'
M. Lemmens↳ Huguinho
77'
A. Murenzi← M. Kim
77'
A. Camara← D. Nzoko
79'
J. Driessen← M. Mocsnik
85'
J. Coenen← E. Sarfo
85'
P. Ogbeiwi← K. Haroun
85'
O. Dumont← O. Szulc
86'
K. Poku← V. Adamo
89'
A. Loune← Huguinho
90+4'
Ali Loune

Possession

67%KRC

Shots

17KRC

Pass accuracy

55%KRC

Statistics

KRCRWDM
Overview
67%Possession33%
17Total Shots9
1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.75
3Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots9
4On Target5
11Off Target2
2Blocked2
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
549Total Passes273
494Accurate Passes206
90%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: KRC Genk II vs RWDM

RWDM beat KRC Genk II 2-0 in League #145 on January 27, 2026.

Goals: V. Adamo (58'), M. Lemmens (76').

KRC Genk II controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.