RW Oberhausen U19 2–5 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

T. Böhm 74', 56'

B. Seker 85'

E. Reck 50', 19'

B. Heuser 33'

B. Hüning 13'

3/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 15Kunstrasen Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1954%

×Draw22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1924%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.28

RW Oberhausen U19

2.00

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.28

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 54 away

1.58

creates per match

0.96

1.60

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

76%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

78%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

46%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

86%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

59%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

72%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

37%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

24%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

B. Hüning

19'

E. Reck

22'

L. Twumasi← J. Mulamba

33'

B. Heuser

46'

A. Terzi← M. Matthes

46'

E. Özat← J. Symalla

46'

T. Böhm← A. Sancarbarlaz

46'

50'

52'

56'

66'

G. Swajkowski← M. Demirci

66'

N. Chana← A. Etri

74'

T. Böhm

81'

D. Kocagöz← T. Kuhlmann

82'

Daniel Raul← L. Twumasi

85'

B. Seker

RW

Rot-Weiss

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Balk

22'▲L. Twumasi←▼J. Mulamba

46'▲A. Terzi←▼M. Matthes

46'▲E. Özat←▼J. Symalla

46'▲T. Böhm←▼A. Sancarbarlaz

82'▲Daniel Raul←▼L. Twumasi

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

TwumasiTerziÖzatBöhmRaulPlathSimakis

Manager: S. Tokat

46'▲T. Evler←▼M. Ademi

52'▲M. Karkar←▼M. Brune

66'▲G. Swajkowski←▼M. Demirci

66'▲N. Chana←▼A. Etri

81'▲D. Kocagöz←▼T. Kuhlmann

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

EvlerKarkarSwajkowskiChanaKocagözSombetzki

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–5 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

Goals: B. Hüning (13'), E. Reck (19', 50'), B. Heuser (33'), T. Böhm (56', 74'), B. Seker (85').

The match was played at Kunstrasen Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–5 Rot-Weiss Essen U19