Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–0 RW Oberhausen U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

A. Etri 20'

M. Brune 12'

4/15/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3BSA Sachsenring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1952%

×Draw22%

RW Oberhausen U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.39

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.02

RW Oberhausen U19

1.39

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 49 away

1.96

creates per match

1.20

1.58

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

74%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

78%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

48%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

30%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

87%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

60%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

33%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

75%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

40%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

66%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

26%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Brune

20'

A. Etri

46'

J. Symalla← E. Hadzibajramovic

46'

L. Twumasi← D. Winter

46'

M. Matthes← T. Böhm

53'

Y. Pirnal← Z. Elhankouri

65'

T. Kuhlmann← Y. Friessner Montas

65'

L. Alpkaya← B. Seker

65'

T. Simakis← A. Terzi

79'

A. Hochbaum← A. Etri

Rot-Weiss

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Hohenberg

53'▲Y. Pirnal←▼Z. Elhankouri

65'▲T. Kuhlmann←▼Y. Friessner Montas

65'▲L. Alpkaya←▼B. Seker

79'▲A. Hochbaum←▼A. Etri

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

PirnalKuhlmannAlpkayaHochbaumAdemiWinnackerLubbers

Manager: D. Balk

46'▲J. Symalla←▼E. Hadzibajramovic

46'▲L. Twumasi←▼D. Winter

46'▲M. Matthes←▼T. Böhm

65'▲T. Simakis←▼A. Terzi

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

SymallaTwumasiMatthesSimakisWiggerMagrouda

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–0 RW Oberhausen U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 15, 2023.

Goals: M. Brune (12'), A. Etri (20').

The match was played at BSA Sachsenring in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2–0 RW Oberhausen U19