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RW Oberhausen U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
4/19/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1944%
×Draw23%
MSV Duisburg U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
1.76
MSV Duisburg U19
1.50

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.64
MSV Duisburg U19
1.40

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
MSV Duisburg U19
1.88

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
67%
RW Oberhausen U19 or MSV Duisburg U19
77%
Draw or MSV Duisburg U19
56%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
23%
MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
83%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
52%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
26%
MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
78%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
44%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
57%
MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
44%
level
23%
MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
33%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

RW
MSV
M. Terranova
Manager: M. Terranova
M. Jahn
Manager: M. Jahn

RW Oberhausen U19 1 – 1 MSV Duisburg U19

RW Oberhausen U19 and MSV Duisburg U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 19, 2026.