MSV Duisburg U19 0–1 RW Oberhausen U19

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

C. Mutlu 9'

5/17/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 14BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1949%

×Draw23%

RW Oberhausen U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.33

MSV Duisburg U19

1.83

RW Oberhausen U19

1.33

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 52 away

1.57

creates per match

1.21

1.46

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.46

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

72%

MSV Duisburg U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

77%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

51%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

27%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

84%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

54%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

28%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

74%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

64%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

49%

level

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

28%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

C. Mutlu

46'

L. Blume← J. Schneider

51'

S. Barnes← L. Gashi

69'

N. Slavytskyi← Z. Durmus

75'

S. Güngör← R. Khurshudyan

76'

A. Gorczycki← S. Barnes

87'

A. Hochbaum← H. Shakata

MSV

RW

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Jahn

46'▲L. Blume←▼J. Schneider

51'▲S. Barnes←▼L. Gashi

69'▲N. Slavytskyi←▼Z. Durmus

76'▲A. Gorczycki←▼S. Barnes

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

BlumeBarnesSlavytskyiGorczyckiFrederikTomljanovićMykhailenko

Manager: M. Terranova

75'▲S. Güngör←▼R. Khurshudyan

87'▲A. Hochbaum←▼H. Shakata

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

GüngörHochbaumSimicMulwemeVarolFreitagLangerbein

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 17, 2025.

Goals: C. Mutlu (9').

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19