RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 MSV Duisburg U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

MSV Duisburg U19

M. Bank 87'

A. Özgen 70'

I. Batmaz 56'

9/27/2020

U19 Bundesliga · West - 2Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1943%

×Draw23%

MSV Duisburg U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

RW Oberhausen U19

1.73

MSV Duisburg U19

1.50

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

1.58

creates per match

1.40

1.60

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

66%

RW Oberhausen U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

77%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

57%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

82%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

25%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

78%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

44%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

56%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

43%

level

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

34%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

F. Dimeski← Yun Ji-Hwan

44'

H. Salah← Y. Cicekdal

46'

46'

56'

70'

77'

85'

J. Aydogan← I. Batmaz

87'

M. Bank

90+1'

D. Karantalis← I. Sejdijaj

RW

MSV

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲A. Özgen←▼B. Bartu

46'▲M. Bank←▼K. Skolik

90+1'▲D. Karantalis←▼I. Sejdijaj

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

ÖzgenBankKarantalisPomorinRamstijnWaschkauRadszuweit

Manager: E. Vural

29'▲F. Dimeski←▼Yun Ji-Hwan

44'▲H. Salah←▼Y. Cicekdal

77'▲M. Sanuri←▼B. Bayrak

85'▲J. Aydogan←▼I. Batmaz

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

DimeskiSalahSanuriAydoganForgerWalterSchabbing

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 MSV Duisburg U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 27, 2020.

Goals: I. Batmaz (56'), A. Özgen (70'), M. Bank (87').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 MSV Duisburg U19