RW Oberhausen U19 3–2 Hennef 05 U19: Result & Stats

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Hennef 05 U19

J. Jann 64' (pen)

M. Sahintürk 27'

S. Güngör 19'

N. Kunz 89'

K. Cornelius 52'

4/27/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1956%

×Draw20%

Hennef 05 U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchHennef 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.47

RW Oberhausen U19

2.33

Hennef 05 U19

1.47

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

1.65

creates per match

1.31

1.63

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.65

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.63

Hennef 05 U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Hennef 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

76%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Hennef 05 U19

80%

Draw or Hennef 05 U19

44%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

90%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

67%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

41%

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

77%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

43%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Hennef 05 U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.65 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

24%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Güngör

27'

M. Sahintürk

37'

L. Dang← B. Yörük

37'

S. Pietrek← J. Fuhrmann

52'

K. Cornelius

64'

J. JannPenalty

69'

D. Nduchekwe← K. Cornelius

69'

S. Music← K. Becher

77'

N. Kunz← A. Rznic

77'

S. Delkic← A. Bouakran

83'

A. Hochbaum← M. Sahintürk

83'

H. Shakata← S. Güngör

86'

C. Becker← I. El Amrani

86'

E. Varol← S. Terranova

89'

N. Kunz

90'

M. Langerbein← M. Brill

RW

Hennef

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sahintürk

▼

Terranova

Manager: M. Terranova

83'▲A. Hochbaum←▼M. Sahintürk

83'▲H. Shakata←▼S. Güngör

86'▲C. Becker←▼I. El Amrani

86'▲E. Varol←▼S. Terranova

90'▲M. Langerbein←▼M. Brill

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

HochbaumShakataBeckerVarolLangerbeinSimicMöller

Manager: M. Lunga

37'▲L. Dang←▼B. Yörük

37'▲S. Pietrek←▼J. Fuhrmann

69'▲D. Nduchekwe←▼K. Cornelius

69'▲S. Music←▼K. Becher

77'▲N. Kunz←▼A. Rznic

77'▲S. Delkic←▼A. Bouakran

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

DangPietrekNduchekweMusicKunzDelkicBouakran