Hennef 05 U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Hennef 05 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

H. Suguro 15'

S. Terranova 9'

2/23/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 4Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hennef 05 U1939%

×Draw23%

RW Oberhausen U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hennef 05 U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.68

Hennef 05 U19

1.70

RW Oberhausen U19

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

1.31

creates per match

1.21

2.15

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Hennef 05 U19

1.31

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

Hennef 05 U19

2.15

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hennef 05 U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hennef 05 U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hennef 05 U19 or draw

62%

Hennef 05 U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

77%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

61%

Winning margin

Hennef 05 U19 wins by 2+

20%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hennef 05 U19 1+ goals

82%

Hennef 05 U19 2+ goals

51%

Hennef 05 U19 3+ goals

24%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

81%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

50%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hennef 05 U19 (draw refunded)

51%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hennef 05 U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hennef 05 U19 attack 1.31 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Hennef 05 U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hennef 05 U19 scores more

39%

level

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

38%

Hennef 05 U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hennef 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Terranova

15'

H. Suguro

46'

L. Dang← N. Kunz

46'

S. Music← N. Mofa

54'

A. Hochbaum← R. Khurshudyan

70'

J. Fuhrmann← K. Becher

70'

K. Cornelius← A. Bouakran

70'

A. Simic← H. Onur

70'

B. Mulweme← H. Shakata

75'

C. Becker← S. Terranova

75'

N. Karschti← M. Sahintürk

78'

B. Yörük← A. Rznic

90'

S. Andric← H. Suguro

Hennef

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Suguro

Manager: M. Lunga

46'▲L. Dang←▼N. Kunz

46'▲S. Music←▼N. Mofa

70'▲J. Fuhrmann←▼K. Becher

70'▲K. Cornelius←▼A. Bouakran

78'▲B. Yörük←▼A. Rznic

90'▲S. Andric←▼H. Suguro

Hennef 05 U19 substitutes

DangMusicFuhrmannCorneliusYörükAndricMüller

Manager: M. Terranova

54'▲A. Hochbaum←▼R. Khurshudyan

70'▲A. Simic←▼H. Onur

70'▲B. Mulweme←▼H. Shakata

75'▲C. Becker←▼S. Terranova

75'▲N. Karschti←▼M. Sahintürk

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

HochbaumSimicMulwemeBeckerKarschtiFreitagLangerbein

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Hennef 05 U19 and RW Oberhausen U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 23, 2025.

Goals: S. Terranova (9'), H. Suguro (15').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportzentrum Hennef in Hennef.

Hennef 05 U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hennef 05 U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19