RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

H. Dier 14'

K. Yalcin 11'

J. Seven 68'

J. Ticha 3'

4/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 14Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1936%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.64

RW Oberhausen U19

1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

1.58

creates per match

1.68

1.60

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

59%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

64%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

17%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

78%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

45%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

36%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

41%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Ticha

7'

T. Weingarten← E. Yilmaz

11'

K. Yalcin

14'

H. Dier

50'

J. Mulamba← M. Bank

53'

A. Özgen← Y. Kazantzidis

68'

J. Seven

80'

D. Bunk← N. Gatzke

90+6'

R. Klinger← K. Skolik

RW

Fortuna

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

50'▲J. Mulamba←▼M. Bank

53'▲A. Özgen←▼Y. Kazantzidis

90+6'▲R. Klinger←▼K. Skolik

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

MulambaÖzgenKlingerHarberingRedamWaschkauHot

Manager: S. Suker

7'▲T. Weingarten←▼E. Yilmaz

80'▲D. Bunk←▼N. Gatzke

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

WeingartenBunkAdibelliIşıkGiesenGarićMüller

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

RW Oberhausen U19 and Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 3, 2022.

Goals: J. Ticha (3'), K. Yalcin (11'), H. Dier (14'), J. Seven (68').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19