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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
CANC
00:00
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
3/15/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 21Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1936%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U1940%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
1.55
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.64
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.67

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.46

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
60%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
76%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
64%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
18%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
79%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
46%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
81%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.67 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
36%
level
24%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
40%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RW Oberhausen U19 face Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with RW Oberhausen U19 hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf U19. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

RW Oberhausen U19 host Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at Stadion Niederrhein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.