RW Oberhausen U19 0–3 Borussia Dortmund U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Borussia Dortmund U19

A. El-Zein 59', 56', 20'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1925%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.09

RW Oberhausen U19

1.38

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.09

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 66 away

1.58

creates per match

2.59

1.60

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Borussia Dortmund U19

2.59

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

46%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

75%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

75%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

40%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

16%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

88%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

62%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.59 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

25%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

54%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

56'

59'

60'

67'

M. Bank← N. Redam

73'

Y. Kazantzidis← R. Klinger

77'

A. Mengot← B. Fink

84'

N. Mrosek← L. Semić

85'

M. Dühring← A. El-Zein

87'

B. Bartu← A. Özgen

RW

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

67'▲M. Bank←▼N. Redam

73'▲Y. Kazantzidis←▼R. Klinger

87'▲B. Bartu←▼A. Özgen

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

BankKazantzidisBartuGiourouckKarakilicWaschkauHarbering

Manager: M. Tullberg

60'▲M. Ludwig←▼V. Walz

77'▲A. Mengot←▼B. Fink

84'▲N. Mrosek←▼L. Semić

85'▲M. Dühring←▼A. El-Zein

Borussia Dortmund U19 substitutes

LudwigMengotMrosekDühringDudekBlankHusseck